Every two years, the state of Wisconsin comes out with its 10-year predictions on job growth.
The report is designed to guide young people into new careers, let business owners know what employment trends are coming and help educators adjust their training programs.
But the timing of the just-released "2008 to 2018 Jobs Outlook" could not have been worse. As economists working with the state Department of Workforce Development were busy reading the tea leaves, real world workers were busy getting pink slips and applying for unemployment benefits.
In the report, the state predicts a record 3.16 million total jobs in Wisconsin by 2018. To get there, Wisconsin will need to add about 410,000 more jobs than existed in August.
Even the two candidates for governor aren't making those kinds of bold promises.
Republican Scott Walker has vowed to create 250,000 new jobs by the end of his first term. Democrat Tom Barrett is slightly more realistic, saying he'll create 180,000 jobs over the next four years or at least enough to replace those lost during the recession.
The state did hit record employment in early 2007, with an estimated 2.88 million jobs. But the employment picture has been dismal since. Wisconsin now counts 80,000 fewer jobs than it did in 2000.
"It's definitely been a tortoise recovery," says Dennis Winters, chief economist with the DWD who helped write the 2018 Jobs Outlook.
The latest issue of "Wisconsin Job Watch" from the liberal Center on Wisconsin Strategy, notes the ongoing problems. After some job gains in the spring, there was zero growth in July and August, leaving the state unemployment rate unchanged at 7.9 percent.
COWS is now warning Wisconsin may have difficulty even creating enough new jobs to match population growth going forward. That could mean systemic high unemployment and workers forced to leave the state to find any kind of career.
"If we assume job growth will be the same as after the 1991 recession, it would take until June 2014 for the number of jobs to catch up to growth in the labor force," says COWS spokeswoman Kari Dickinson. "Furthermore, if we continue a ‘jobless recovery,' the state may never again be able to accommodate the growth of its labor force."
Those sobering statements stand in stark contrast to the widespread optimism many were feeling just two years ago.
State economists in their "2006-2016 Jobs Outlook" had projected state employment would grow by 8 percent over the period, with a record 3.33 million jobs by 2016.
But the latest report appears slightly more realistic, predicting job growth of 2.7 percent over the next 10-year period.
UW-Stevens Point economist Randy Cray helped write the latest Jobs Outlook and says the new projections are well within reason.
"In my opinion the projected net growth of 83,000 jobs over the 10-year period is very anemic and says that we will be in an extended period of very slow job growth," says Cray.
One company actually benefiting from the jobs picture is QTI, the Madison-based temporary staffing firm. QTI has enjoyed double digit growth this year as employers looked to fill openings without doing any hiring.
Marshall Heyworth, chief operating officer of consulting and professional recruiting at QTI, says many companies remain reluctant to add regular staff out of fear the economy isn't recovering fast enough or could slip again in a double dip recession.
"It's clear that many employers are looking at a temporary work force as a permanent feature," he says.
Heyworth says demand has been strong of late for high-skill positions like technical manufacturing, auto mechanics or industrial machining. He says more high school graduates should consider learning tech skills rather than pursuing a four-year degree.
"We've kind of turned our back on those industries but they're still out there," he says.
So what other industries might lead the way in job growth?
Home health aides are projected as the fasting-growing occupation in Wisconsin over the next 10 years, with a projected 38 percent growth rate. Unfortunately, these jobs pay on average just $21,000 a year, according to the DWD report.
Next in line is network systems and data specialists, a sector predicted to grow 37 percent over the next 10 years. These jobs pay on average $64,000.
After that, it's all about health care.
In fact, of the 20 fastest-growing occupations in Wisconsin, all but a handful are related to health services - from dental hygienist to physical therapists. One exception is "gaming dealers," a sector predicted to grow 23 percent over the next 10 years.
Missing from the list of fastest-growing occupations in Wisconsin is biotechnology or life sciences. While there's been a lot of enthusiasm and publicity surrounding the sector, it hasn't yet resulted in major employment gains, as fewer than 1 percent of state jobs are in biotech fields.
But a report last week from BioForward, a Madison-based trade association, says biotechnology could create thousands of new jobs in a variety of fields. The report noted that bioscience employment has grown 3 percent in Wisconsin over the past five years while the state overall has lost 3 percent of its jobs.
"There's so much doom and gloom out there it's nice to have something better to report," says Bryan Renk, executive director of BioForward.
Economist Winters says the problem in measuring the "biotech" sector is that it cuts across so many different fields - from ethanol production to stem cell research.
"The industry itself just isn't that well-defined," he says.
One thing that is well-defined is the need for the overall economy to pick up to get companies hiring. Winters says things won't improve until there is growth across major sectors like consumer consumption, private investment and exports.
"We are in a quandary as to what will get the economy jump-started," he says. "Will more stimulus help? Tax cuts? Both? What about the budget deficit? This is, indeed, a sticky wicket."
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